Could Tesla start delivering the Model Y sometime in the next four months? According to a new research note by Deutsche Bank, this very well could be the case. While Tesla has not confirmed the information, delivery of the Tesla Model Y may very well start early next year if their demand for accelerated parts orders is any indication.
Tesla Model Y Delivery Timetable Bumped Up?
The rumor stems from research done by Deutsche Bank, an international financial service provider. Analysts cited reports from Tesla suppliers in Taiwan who have claimed that Tesla wants them to deliver its parts orders much earlier than expected. Suppliers state that the parts are for both the Model Y and the Tesla Semi. According to Deutsche Bank’s Senior Autos & Auto Technology Analyst, Emmanuel Rosner, “…Tesla is accelerating orders to enter mass production a full six months ahead of the original schedule.”
If so, that means that we could see deliveries of the Tesla Model Y start rolling out in the first quarter of 2020, a full season ahead of Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s previously promised schedule. Musk had already estimated that the launch would probably occur sometime next summer during the 2019 Q3 earnings call: “We’re also ahead of schedule on Model Y preparations in Fremont, and we’ve moved the launch timeline from full 2020 to summer 2020. There may be some room for improvement there, but we’re confident about summer 2020.”
What About Volume Production?
While some cars may very well be rolling off of the assembly line and into someone’s driveway, this may not mean that Tesla Model Y will be necessarily meeting volume production goals quite so soon. Musk expects volume production to start next summer, so a smaller number of vehicles could be produced before then. Imagine a starting trickle of electric cars rather than the sudden bursting of a Tesla Model Y dam.
If it is anything like what happened with the Model 3, there is a good chance that those first few Q1 deliveries could go to employees and Tesla insiders. Folks like that ended up being in the front of the line for deliveries of the Model 3; there is no reason to think that this could not happen for the Model Y as well.
But at the same time, the Tesla Model Y is a totally different beast. Tesla learned a lot since the last launch, and it is now more organized with a better handle on manufacturing. Plus the Tesla Model Y shares a lot of parts with the Model 3, so production should logically be easier to ramp up with the equipment and parts already on hand.
There is just no way to know for sure unless Tesla speaks up, and for now, it remains mum. We will just have to wait and see if this Tesla rumor pans out or not.